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Who will win the Eurovision Song Contest 2018? Our prediction for the final

by | May 12, 2018

Who will win the Eurovision Song Contest 2018? Our prediction for the final

by | May 12, 2018 | Eurovision |

Need a scoresheet for tonight’s show? Download ours here!

Happy Eurovision – the big day has arrived! Tonight the grand final of the Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Lisbon, Portugal.

We are slowly reaching the climax of another long season. We’ve seen favourites rise, then watched as some of them fell – and now it’s less than half a day until we will know the host country of ESC 2019.

Throughout the last six months, we have encountered some classic national final entries that we are still remembering and voting for in our SongHunt final – don’t forget to vote for your favourite here! – but tonight it’s the successful entries from 26 countries that will finally compete for the Eurovision crown. And we all wonder: Who will hold the trophy at the end of the show?

It’s time for our team’s predictions!

The format is simple: Each of the escgo! team members (Martin, Felix and Shi) has 100 points to distribute across the entries depending on how likely they consider them to be tonight’s winner.

And here’s what they think:

Country Martin Felix Shi TEAM POINTS VICTORY CHANCE in %
1. Ukraine  0  1  0  1  0.33%
2. Spain  0  0  0  0  0%
3. Slovenia  0  0  0  0  0%
4. Lithuania  0  5  0  5  1.67%
5. Austria  0  0  0  0  0%
6. Estonia  0  6  0  6  2%
7. Norway  10  8  0  18  6%
8. Portugal  0  0  0  0  0%
9. UK
 0  1  0  1  0.33%
10. Serbia  0  0  0  0  0%
11. Germany  1  1  5  7  2.33%
12. Albania  0  1  0  1  0.33%
13. France  5  9  5  19  6.33%
14. Czech Rep.
 0  4  5  9  3%
15. Denmark  0  5  0  5  1.67%
16. Australia  0  0  0  0  0%
17. Finland  0  0  0  0  0%
18. Bulgaria  0  1  0  1  0.33%
19. Moldova  0  6  0  5  2%
20. Sweden  5  1  5  11  3.67%
21. Hungary  0  15  0  15  5%
22. Israel  35  10  50  95  31.67%
23. Netherlands  0  1  0  1  0.33%
24. Ireland  2  4  0  6  2%
25. Cyprus  40  20  20  80  26.67%
26. Italy  2  1  10  13  4.33%

So what do we expect? Much like the betting markets and the fans, we generally see it as a head-to-head between Eleni from Cyprus and Netta from Israel, but with lots of question marks floating around whether that will actually prove to be the case. Felix in particular has spread his points around a lot, while Martin is most confident in a Cypriot victory (although he hasn’t followed that up in his bets, which may tell its own story!). Meanwhile, Shi is happier to accept that the push towards Cyprus is more of a press centre hype, still believing that Netta was leading the way for nearly two months for a good reason.

In terms of who’s next in line, Shi trusts in Italy to make an impact from last place in the running order, while Felix believes that Hungary could pull off a sensational screamo scoreboard surprise. Meanwhile, Martin is hedging his bets with a sneaky ten points for Norway‘s Alexander Rybak (and that one he has bet on… just in case). And we all think Madame Monsieur from France are somewhere in the mix – not a frontrunner, but the kind of thing that could pick up enough support, especially from the juries, to make an impact tonight.

In this diverse and unpredictable year, there are relatively few songs we give absolutely no chance of victory, although it may be surprising to see early-season favourites Finland among them, not to mention the mainstream pop banger from Australia.

What do you think will happen tonight? Do you agree or disagree with our views? Let us know in the comments, on social media or in our chat – and however you watch the show tonight, we hope you have a great Eurovision day, and may the best song win!

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Gallery: The host city Lisbon

We’ve been out and about in Lisbon, surely one of the most picturesque and personality-filled Eurovision host cities. Enjoy some of our photo highlights in this gallery!

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