As the first semi-final of ESC 2018 approaches, we take a look at some of the betting markets you might want to consider for tonight’s show! As always, all odds are correct at the time of writing – and if you need an introduction to betting odds, our friends over at Sofabet have a comprehensive guide.

The obvious place to start is the qualification market, since the “yes/no” binary of whether a country comes out of one of those digital envelopes is the only result we’ll actually get to see tonight – the detailed breakdown won’t be revealed until the early hours of Sunday morning. Semi 1 is widely regarded as seriously tough, which means there are some decent prices to be had if you can spot the outsiders that will outperform the market’s expectations. For example, Franka from Croatia has enjoyed excellent rehearsal reports and could get some serious jury love – a price of 5.1 (Betfair Exchange) for qualification seems quite generous right now, particularly as the country should enjoy a baseline of televoting support from the likes of Macedonia, Switzerland and Austria. Speaking of countries with televoting support, if you’re happy playing the shorter odds, Sevak from Armenia is seen as marginally more likely to qualify than not, but 1.89 (Betfair Exchange) for qualification is very tempting all the same. And, of course, there’s Finland’s Saara Aalto – an early-season favourite who, remarkably, is now trading at around 2.4 (Sportingbet) to qualify. If you still believe in the quality of “Monsters” as a modern pop song, that’s an obvious bet to chase.

Oh, and then there’s poor old Ari from Iceland. No song in any year has ever seen such long odds to qualify as “Our Choice” – it’s been trading on Betfair at around 50, currently sitting in the low-40s. And remember, that’s just to finish in 10th place or above in a semi-final of 19 songs. Ouch.

Crazily priced?

The other side of the binary is non-qualification. I often make my best profits by betting “negatively” – sometimes it’s easier to work out what won’t happen than what will. For example, Ieva from Lithuania feels like she’s been flattered by a good set of rehearsals this last week and is now viewed as a comfortable qualifier on the betting markets. If you’re still sceptical, Betway will offer you 2.75 for a Lithuanian NQ. Other potential candidates for “shock” non-qualification (though is there really such a thing in this ultra-competitive heat?) could include Austria at 3.25, while I’m surprised by how well-regarded the Swiss duo ZiBBZ appear to be, and Betway will give you 2.0 if you think they’re heading home tonight.

What we won’t find out tonight is who the winner of the semi-final is. Netta from Israel has been the leading candidate for the last month and more, but the recent dramatic move towards Cyprus (which I’m still struggling to fully understand) means there’s finally some value available if you want to back “Toy” to triumph tonight – Marathon Bet are offering odds of 4.0, while most other sites are in the mid-to-high 3s. Alternatively, if you do buy into the Eleni Foureira hype, odds of 3.0 (BetVictor) are still pretty generous for an entry that’s being touted as the hot new candidate for overall victory, never mind victory in a semi-final where it enjoys the bonus of the pimp slot.

Yeah, yeah, winner

In terms of tonight’s top 3, I’d say there are four obvious candidates fighting it out for the three spots: Cyprus, Israel, Estonia and the Czech Republic. You can currently grab odds of 2.75 (Unibet), or in excess of 3 on the Betfair Exchange, for Mikolas from the Czech Republic to sneak onto the podium this evening. Since every commentator will surely mention the struggles he’s had following his back injury earlier in the rehearsal period, that could potentially be televoting gold, and if the juries are doing their job then they should reward his contemporary song.

The only other question is who will finish in last place tonight. This market basically only exists on Betfair Exchange, and it’s fair to say that there are two clear candidates: the aforementioned Icelandic entry (1.46), and Eye Cue from Macedonia (2.04). No one else even comes close in terms of the odds, and I’m happy to agree with that analysis at this stage. While Iceland should get the wooden spoon, it’s not inconceivable that Ari’s winsome performance and strong vocals will pick up a smattering of jury and televote points, while a weak vocal and ill-advised staging on the part of the Macedonians could easily see them lost at the bottom of the scoreboard and never to be found again, even with a few friendly countries to help them on the televote front. It’s still going to be Iceland though… isn’t it?

Charming but doomed

As always, you can see a full overview of the odds for the various markets and bookmakers at Oddschecker. Wherever you place your money and however you watch the show tonight, I hope you have a fun and profitable evening – and join us in two days’ time as we return to analyse the second semi-final from a betting perspective!