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Happy Eurovision – the big day has arrived! Tonight the grand final of the Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Lisbon, Portugal.

We are slowly reaching the climax of another long season. We’ve seen favourites rise, then watched as some of them fell – and now it’s less than half a day until we will know the host country of ESC 2019.

Throughout the last six months, we have encountered some classic national final entries that we are still remembering and voting for in our SongHunt final – don’t forget to vote for your favourite here! – but tonight it’s the successful entries from 26 countries that will finally compete for the Eurovision crown. And we all wonder: Who will hold the trophy at the end of the show?

It’s time for our team’s predictions!

The format is simple: Each of the escgo! team members (Martin, Felix and Shi) has 100 points to distribute across the entries depending on how likely they consider them to be tonight’s winner.

And here’s what they think:

Country	Martin	Felix	Shi	TEAM POINTS	VICTORY CHANCE in %
1. Ukraine	0	1	0	1	0.33%
2. Spain	0	0	0	0	0%
3. Slovenia	0	0	0	0	0%
4. Lithuania	0	5	0	5	1.67%
5. Austria	0	0	0	0	0%
6. Estonia	0	6	0	6	2%
7. Norway	10	8	0	18	6%
8. Portugal	0	0	0	0	0%
9. UK	0	1	0	1	0.33%
10. Serbia	0	0	0	0	0%
11. Germany	1	1	5	7	2.33%
12. Albania	0	1	0	1	0.33%
13. France	5	9	5	19	6.33%
14. Czech Rep.	0	4	5	9	3%
15. Denmark	0	5	0	5	1.67%
16. Australia	0	0	0	0	0%
17. Finland	0	0	0	0	0%
18. Bulgaria	0	1	0	1	0.33%
19. Moldova	0	6	0	5	2%
20. Sweden	5	1	5	11	3.67%
21. Hungary	0	15	0	15	5%
22. Israel	35	10	50	95	31.67%
23. Netherlands	0	1	0	1	0.33%
24. Ireland	2	4	0	6	2%
25. Cyprus	40	20	20	80	26.67%
26. Italy	2	1	10	13	4.33%

So what do we expect? Much like the betting markets and the fans, we generally see it as a head-to-head between Eleni from Cyprus and Netta from Israel, but with lots of question marks floating around whether that will actually prove to be the case. Felix in particular has spread his points around a lot, while Martin is most confident in a Cypriot victory (although he hasn’t followed that up in his bets, which may tell its own story!). Meanwhile, Shi is happier to accept that the push towards Cyprus is more of a press centre hype, still believing that Netta was leading the way for nearly two months for a good reason.

In terms of who’s next in line, Shi trusts in Italy to make an impact from last place in the running order, while Felix believes that Hungary could pull off a sensational screamo scoreboard surprise. Meanwhile, Martin is hedging his bets with a sneaky ten points for Norway‘s Alexander Rybak (and that one he has bet on… just in case). And we all think Madame Monsieur from France are somewhere in the mix – not a frontrunner, but the kind of thing that could pick up enough support, especially from the juries, to make an impact tonight.

In this diverse and unpredictable year, there are relatively few songs we give absolutely no chance of victory, although it may be surprising to see early-season favourites Finland among them, not to mention the mainstream pop banger from Australia.

What do you think will happen tonight? Do you agree or disagree with our views? Let us know in the comments, on social media or in our chat – and however you watch the show tonight, we hope you have a great Eurovision day, and may the best song win!

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The second semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2018 is just a few hours away, and so it’s time for us in the escgo! team to predict the ten qualifiers for the grand final on Saturday. Will we do any better than our patchy performance on Tuesday?

You can see the choices of Martin, Felix and Shi in the table below – followed by a brief summary of their views!

Country	Martin	Felix	Shi	TEAM
1. Norway	Q	Q	Q	100%
2. Romania	Q			33.3%
3. Serbia				0%
4. San Marino		Q		33.3%
5. Denmark		Q	Q	66.7%
6. Russia	Q			33.3%
7. Moldova	Q	Q	Q	100%
8. Netherlands	Q		Q	66.7%
9. Australia	Q	Q	Q	100%
10. Georgia		Q	Q	66.7%
11. Poland				0%
12. Malta	Q			33.3%
13. Hungary	Q	Q	Q	100%
14. Latvia			Q	33.3%
15. Sweden	Q	Q	Q	100%
16. Montenegro		Q		33.3%
17. Slovenia				0%
18. Ukraine	Q	Q	Q	100%

Martin:
Six from the first half? Well, I know we lost a few big hitters in semi 1, but I refuse to believe in a Russian NQ until I see it with my own eyes. Similarly, I’d love to see the back of Waylon’s “ode to his own authenticity” (no, seriously, that’s what the press material says. Hilarious!), but it won’t happen. There’s a personal risk in including Hungary, my #1 this year, as the rehearsals have been vocally unconvincing, but fingers crossed for tonight. And while “Taboo” is qualitatively awful, Malta have ways of making it through when they want to.

Felix:
I know, calling Russia, I mean… RUSSIA… a non-qualifier is a daring act, but their stage show is less professional than San Marino’s, and less likeable too. Georgia is probably borderline, so it’s one of the biggest question marks in my list, and Slovenia might make it instead. Otherwise, I’m quite confident that this will be the result tonight.

Shi:
Song-wise, this semi is like the first one, only reversed: more than ten songs that really shouldn’t qualify, but some of them will out of the awesome force of mathematics. I can only hope it will at least be entertaining, if not during the songs, then during the results.

And because this semi-final is so all over the place, we’ve also done a randomly generated shadow prediction for all three of our team members. WIll the power of random chance prove to be more accurate than our carefully considered views? That would be embarrassing, and yet somehow entirely plausible. Semi 2, you are weird and wonderful. Bring it on.

Will we be right or completely wrong? There’s only a few hours left until we find out – so whatever you’re doing and whomever you’re watching the show with, enjoy the evening and may the best songs qualify!

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The first semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2018 is just a few hours away, and so it’s time for us in the escgo! team to predict the ten qualifiers for the grand final on Saturday.

You can see the choices of Martin, Felix and Shi in the table below – followed by a brief summary of their views!

Country	Martin	Felix	Shi	TEAM
1. Azerbaijan	Q	Q	Q	100%
2. Iceland				0%
3. Albania				0%
4. Belgium	Q	Q		66.7%
5. Czech Republic	Q		Q	66.7%
6. Lithuania		Q		33.3%
7. Israel	Q	Q	Q	100%
8. Belarus				0%
9. Estonia	Q	Q	Q	100%
10. Bulgaria	Q			33.3%
11. Macedonia				0%
12. Croatia			Q	33.3%
13. Austria		Q	Q	66.7%
14. Greece	Q		Q	66.7%
15. Finland	Q	Q		66.7%
16. Armenia	Q	Q	Q	100%
17. Switzerland				0%
18. Ireland		Q	Q	66.7%
19. Cyprus	Q	Q	Q	100%

Martin:
And to think the second semi-final was supposed to be the one with the big hitters in it. How do you even begin to choose ten qualifiers from tonight’s show? There are only four I’m really happy with, namely Israel, Czech Republic, Estonia and Cyprus. Even the supposedly guaranteed Bulgaria should have a question mark over it really, but the delegation seem keen to ensure that things go right for them, so let’s call it five. I’m also going for Saara Aalto to win over the doubters (and Belgium to win over the jurors). As for the rest, take your pick!

Felix:
You might consider Ireland a daring prediction, but its big bonus is the late draw, the touching stage show, as well as Ryan’s vocal performance. Belgium and Finland are the ones I am most unsure about, while the Czech Republic might be a shock non-qualifier. This is all about Mikolas and his performance, while neither the draw nor the actual song are brilliant, there is no vocal bonus either, and the country lacks friends as well. Greece might be a daring NQ prediction too, and I love both song and staging, but seems like I am in the minority.

Shi:
Every year, when we get to this point of time, I start to feel like I have absolutely no clue. This year it’s worse because at no point did I ever have any clue. I think that most songs in this semi have a good shot of qualifying, so we’re going to end up with a few songs that feel like surprise non-qualifiers, even though it makes mathematical sense that some of them have to NQ. Having said I wanted surprises this year, I’m looking forward to seeing which of my obvious qualifiers and non-qualifiers I got wrong.

Will we be right or completely wrong? There’s only a few hours left until we find out – so whatever you’re doing and whomever you’re watching the show with, enjoy the evening and may the best songs qualify!

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United Kingdom: SuRie – Storm

Martin: In the immediate aftermath of SuRie’s victory in the UK final, I wrote that the process had been another step in the right direction for the BBC, and I stand by that assessment.

What has changed in the meantime is that lots of countries have selected entries that are clearly superior to “Storm”. That’s always a risk when you hold your national final relatively early in the season – the pleasant surprise of a friendly and decent selection quickly wears off when the big hitters start entering the game. It’s become increasingly hard to imagine the average viewer watching 26 songs and coming to the conclusion that the United Kingdom is the one they simply must vote for.

What hasn’t changed in the meantime is that, while “Storm” may be an absolutely average, straight-down-the-middle composition with little to distinguish itself, it is lifted hugely by SuRie’s performance and stage presence. She comes across as a radiant, almost beatific presence at the heart of this otherwise average entry, and any steps the UK takes outside of the bottom few positions on the scoreboard will be entirely thanks to her.

I wish her every success in that task – she’s top fun on social media and has embraced the ESC experience like almost no British entrant before her. But I also suspect she’s realistic enough to know that she’s facing an uphill battle here.

Felix: What’s “superior to ‘Storm’?” In my book, only one song is superior, and that’s Albania. I love the UK this year, as my second favourite, as a positive and uplifting pop song in major scale, a thing that became so rare in 2018. I love it, I’ll vote for it.

Shi: My sister and I actively like this, just so you know. Other than that, worse songs have done well in Eurovision solely by the ability of a performer to convince you the song is way better than what it is. I think SuRie is one of those performers, and I think she’s very memorable regardless, which automatically helps her when voters have to vote for something and need their memory jogged.

video and title image source: eurovision.tv

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Spain: Amaia & Alfred – Tu canción

Felix: Sweet, in most cases, equals tasty. Lovely. Heartwarming. Cute. Spain 2018? Now that’s a totally new kind of “sweet”.

Not long ago, after dark, milk and white, a new kind of chocolate was launched: Red chocolate. And while sweetness, for centuries, has been an admittedly unhealthy but exciting, addictive and positive experience, the kind of “sweet” that gets introduced to the planet with the Spanish entry in 2018 is so revolutionary that it knocks down the age-old concepts of taste. This radical new “sweet” manages to be narcotic yet lackluster and bland. It simply has no flavour. Crazy!

If you are on a diet and you long for donuts or muffins, just be grateful for the worldwide launch of this “new sweet” and watch the Spanish entry. The gustatory centre of your brain will be fooled and take it, and while your reward centre totally disagrees with what your gustatory centre thinks, the rest of your brain will decide it can’t be bothered with the bitch fight and respond with the only sane precaution in the circumstances: Sleep.

z

z

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Oh, hi. What happened there? I appear to be craving donuts.

(Prediction: Bottom 10.)

Martin: Like so many sweet but nutritionally worthless products, I know I shouldn’t like this, but I do. Sorry not sorry. Alfred has a slappable face, but Amaia is endlessly lovely and there’s something about their puppy-love romance that makes the overall package work. But only for three minutes. I’m not sure I could manage a second portion at the end of the grand final.

Shi: I like this more than I initially did, which is probably the most positive thing I can say about it. I generally struggle with saccharine (and in this case, also Alfred), but Amaia is indeed lovely, and we know all too well that the audience can definitely go for saccharine. Add this to my “it’s going to do way better than it should, isn’t it?” list.

video and title image source: eurovision.tv

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Portugal: Cláudia Pascoal – O jardim

Martin: And now our line-up check turns to the host country, Portugal.

Let’s just dwell on those words for a moment. The host country, Portugal. The reigning champions of the Eurovision Song Contest. Unsuccessful, downtrodden Portugal, their authentic entries so often ignored by the international audience over the years. Defending their title.

It’s still bloody marvellous, isn’t it?

Anyway, the entire nation of Portugal will rightly continue to dine out on their ESC victory for years to come, so there’s no need for them to play for victory any time soon. Instead, they’ve done what many host nations in the past have done and selected a very local entry that fills a niche no one else is really addressing: quiet, personal, introverted, feminine, unassuming, uncompromising.

If “O jardim” had to qualify from a semi-final, I’d be very worried about its chances. And it’d be a real loss when it got squeezed out in favour of some committee-written Euro-trash notionally representing an Azerbaijan or an Austria.

Instead, thanks to Salvador Sobral, the Saturday night audience will get to experience this very un-Eurovision Eurovision entry – and even if some songs do benefit from fireworks and sometimes fast food is exactly what you want, we can be thankful for this particular oasis of musical calm.

Shi: It’s wonderful if extremely understated. And I think it might have a little unintended Salvador effect by having a very very quiet hall for three minutes, contrasted by a giant applause, which should work well for dramatic effect. How it will do? Only Mr. God knows, but I don’t think anyone cares.

Felix: I hate to repeat my word creation that I already used for the Czech Republic, but Portugal is just another “shrinker”. I liked it a lot when it won Festival da Cançaõ, but now… I find it a bit boring. However, good to have something like that in the final.

video and title image source: eurovision.tv

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Italy: Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro – Non mi avete fatto niente

Felix: Italy and I don’t have any connection or relationship this year. This one, seriously, *shrug*. It just dabbles on and on, and gets quite exhausting after a minute.

There’s not much happening, like in those movies where the main characters talk non-stop without any actual plot taking place. Take When Harry Met Sally, for instance. Here it’s not Harry and Sally, it’s Ermal and Fabrizio. Talk talk talk. And just like that movie, this song does nothing for me.

I’ll make one exception though: the sound of the song is very warm and sunny, so it doesn’t leave me completely cold. But the simple fact is I won’t care whether this comes 5th or 25th.

Shi: This is actually my favorite this year, which says a lot considering I like very little. But I am also entirely aware that the song is such a “me” thing that there is no obvious connection between my level of loving it and how successful it will be at Eurovision. I’d love it to do well, I expect it to be somewhere mid-table, and I hope to be positively surprised.

Martin: I’m more with Shi than Felix on this one, I have to say – this isn’t my favourite but it’s comfortably nestled in my personal top ten. Where I do agree with Felix, though, is the exhaustion factor. I can imagine the European audience having difficulty connecting to what is essentially two men lecturing them incessantly about terrorism for three minutes.

video and title image source: eurovision.tv

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Germany: Michael Schulte – You Let Me Walk Alone

Shi: Until a couple of months ago, there was only one German entry I didn’t like since 2010. Now there are two.

I’ve been told that I’m heartless for feeling absolutely nothing for “You Let Me Walk Alone”, given the lyrics and the personal story behind them, but with all my sincere and honest sympathy for the pain in the loss of a parent, I still can’t justify the level of saccharine attack this song is on my nerves. There’s nothing subtle in either the music or the lyrics, so instead of gently tugging our emotions, it tries to pull them as strongly as possible.

I could maybe have forgiven some of the cheesiness if Michael Schulte, while quite obviously a nice person, wasn’t a living personality vacuum. However emotional the song may be, whenever I look at his face I find myself thinking that what he really wants to do right now is be done with the singing already and go to bed. It’s hard to be excited when the performer doesn’t look like he particularly cares, and considering what the song is about, you’d think he would. He probably does, but he has about two weeks to learn how to show it.

Martin: Arbitrary annoyances are the best. In this case it’s the Denglisch title that bugs me. Michael is, I guess, trying to tell his dad either “you enabled me to walk this road alone” or “you left me to walk this road alone”. “You let me walk this road alone” means neither of these things. Gah. Oh well – at least it’s a distraction from the relentlessly bland song.

Felix: Watching their national final, you could tell the Germans were trying to do their homework, as some things about it were indeed improved. The result, however, is from the same mouldy box as the last four German entries. Germans hate experiments and trying new things. It shows.

video and title image source: eurovision.tv

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Ukraine: Mélovin – Under The Ladder

Felix: Ukraine, now what’s up with this one? While I’m watching it, it’s a perfectly okay song. It’s captivating and driving, the performance is decent and memorable, and in general it’s actually quite an edgy entry, so that should be a good sign for Ukraine. But it isn’t.

Unfortunately, “Under The Ladder” has zero sustainability. It’s a sonic piece of soap. As soon as it’s over, it goes “plop!”… and Ukraine is lost in the bathwater. Maybe it’s too driving and pacy? Maybe the chorus lacks something? I don’t know what it is, but despite the ingredients being fine, the meal served up lacks nutrients.

That draw in a weak semi-final is the only good news for Ukraine, but as soon as they are in the final, it will become a tough game for them.

I certainly don’t dislike this one. But in the 2018 list of “entries I don’t dislike”, it’s probably my last place.  And there’s really nothing more to say about it.

Shi: It’s one of those entries that feel proper and competent but I’d be hard pressed to highlight a particular selling point, beyond feeling like some effort was put into it and that it’s performed by a professional. Although I suppose in the context of this semi-final those are the selling points of this.

Martin: I’m more positive overall (I think this can squeeze into the top 10), but I do share that feeling of enjoying Ukraine more while it’s happening than after the event. The “oh oh oh” section is ultra-catchy and he’s an appealing performer in an Asa-Butterfield-styled-as-a-high-school-goth kind of way, but the whole thing is weirdly transitory.

video and title image source: eurovision.tv

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