Our big day has arrived! Tonight, the grand final of the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest will be held in Stockholm, Sweden.
For fans around the continent and beyond, it’s the climax to the most exciting time of the year, the conclusion of an on-season that can be said to have begun way back with the announcement of the first internally selected entrants in the autumn. Along the way, we encountered some classic national final entries that we are still remembering and voting for in our SongHunt – you can vote for your favourites in our quarter-finals here! – but tonight it’s the successful entries from 26 participating nations that will finally compete for the Eurovision crown.
After our efforts at predicting the semi-final qualifiers, we decided to get the escgo! team members to sit down and give their predictions for tonight’s results. The format is simple: Each of them (Martin, Felix and Shi) has 100 points to distribute across the entries depending on how likely they consider them to be winners.
Here’s what they think:
|Country||Martin||Felix||Shi||TEAM POINTS||VICTORY CHANCE in %|
|2. Czech Republic||0||0||0||0||0%|
|3. The Netherlands||0||5||0||5||0.67%|
|11. France||3||0||14||17||5.67 %|
|25. United Kingdom||0||0||0||0||0%|
So what do we expect? Our team thinks that Sergey Lazarev from Russia is the most likely candidate for victory tonight, with an overall probability of 31.3%. All three of them agree that Dami Im from Australia is next in line (19.3%) following her strong performance in Thursday’s second semi-final. Frans from Sweden ends up in our third place (13%) – but only after strong disagreement within the team, with Martin seeing “If I Were Sorry” as a really strong contender, while Felix believes it doesn’t have a chance at all.
Felix, in turn, sees Austria with a 20% chance of victory, and while the other two team members don’t agree, they do at least each give “Loin d’ici” a small chance of taking home the prize tonight, resulting in a team percentage of 8%. That’s also the score achieved by Ukraine and “1944” by Jamala. Shi still believes in Amir from France, making him the only other one of tonight’s contestants with a team probability of over 5%. All the rest – even ChatVote winner Justs from Latvia – are considered to have a likelihood of less than 5%, with no fewer than 15 of the entries seen as being completely without a chance of victory.
So that’s how we see it: Moscow (or Sochi) 2017 is currently the most likely outcome, but there are plenty of other contenders who could still take the victory ahead of bookmakers’ favourite Sergey Lazarev. What do you think will happen tonight? Do you agree or disagree with our views? Let us know on social media or in our chat – and however you watch the show tonight, we hope you have a great Eurovision day!