After a bidding process lasting many months and amid near-endless speculation, it was announced today that the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest will be held at the Ahoy arena and conference centre in Rotterdam on 12, 14 and 16 May.

The Netherlands’ second-largest city with a population of over 600,000 and a key part of the vast Randstad economic region, Rotterdam had been in a tightly-fought battle with the other city remaining in the bidding process, Maastricht. The latter was seen as an unlikely candidate on account of its relative lack of hotel rooms and other facilities, but the fact that it made it to the final two was enough to make some people suspect the bid was destined for success – a contest in perhaps the most “European-branded” of all cities at a time of upheaval for the old continent. However, logistics and common sense appear to have prevailed in the end, and Rotterdam 2020 it is.

Of course, many eagle-eyed fans had spotted the official ESC website apparently leaking Rotterdam as the winning bid on Wednesday night, including this image:

Someone behind the scenes moved quickly to create a dummy page for Maastricht too, in an attempt to cover their tracks – but you can’t get anything past Eurovision fans, you know…

Ticketing information, the identity of the hosts and all the rest of the details on ESC 2020 will follow later in the year.

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As the EU elections begin around the continent, the European Broadcasting Union last night provided some voting drama of its own with the announcement – as already suspected by many fans – that the substitute jury result it calculated for Belarus in the grand final was completely wrong and has been revised. The result: Changes to the final scoreboard, with Sweden replacing Norway in the top five, and North Macedonia denied its rightful moment in the spotlight as the jury winner.

We have questions.

• How come this was allowed to happen in the first place, considering it was screamingly obvious to everyone watching on Saturday night that something weird was going on when the Belarusian votes went almost exclusively to countries at the bottom end of the scoreboard?

• At the very least, did the fact that Belarus’s 12 points went to a country that otherwise received no points from any other jury not raise any alerts, given that the entire point of the aggregated vote is that it reflects how other countries voted?

• What’s the point of the juries voting 24 hours before the public, on a completely different set of performances, if that time isn’t used to verify their results correctly?

• Is the idea of devising an artificial aggregated result to replace a disqualified jury really the best one anyway? Surely it’d be possible to either find a new set of people in Belarus to vote in the final, or to simply use an alternative jury – a representative sample from various parts of the continent, people from a non-participating country, former Eurovision winners, whatever. Anything seems preferable to adding points to the scoreboard that are literally made up.

• Since we now also know that multiple jurors messed up their individual rankings by putting their favourite song in last place and vice versa – and not for the first time – isn’t it time the EBU and Digame introduced more checks and balances, from on-site scrutineers to manual confirmations when the results are submitted by each country? How hard is it to get this right?

• How will this affect the betting markets? At time of writing, Betfair are digging in their heels when it comes to paying out on the revised results – which is understandable since, in theory, it also requires them to demand money back from those who won it e.g. on Norway finishing in the top five. However, the argument they’re using is that, under their terms and conditions, more than 72 hours have passed since the original result so the affected markets can’t be resettled. Since we all knew there was something fishy about the Belarusian jury result the instant it was announced, how come it’s taken the EBU so long to fess up?

• And perhaps most concerningly of all… what if this happens again, but next time the identity of the winner changes?

What a mess. It’s not quite enough to ruin the aftertaste of a fun and dramatic Eurovision grand final, but for the sake of the contest’s integrity, it really needs to be something that is never repeated.

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The winner of the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest is “Arcade” by Duncan Laurence from the Netherlands – ending a 44-year wait for the country dating back to Teach-In and “Ding-A-Dong” in 1975.

In an incredibly exciting results presentation, Sweden won the jury vote narrowly ahead of surprise package North Macedonia, while Norway was the clear winner in the televote – a disparity that opened the door for the Netherlands to take a consensus overall victory.

We’ll be back tomorrow with more analysis and insight from inside and outside the Tel Aviv bubble, but until then, congratulations to the Netherlands! Here’s your ESC 2019 winner one more time:

Title image and video from eurovision.tv

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Just because tonight’s Eurovision final is a foregone conclusion and the Netherlands are going to win with a gazillion points (depending on who you believe), that doesn’t mean there aren’t some decent bets to be had in the various markets that always spring up around the contest. As usual, we’ve sifted through the pages of Oddschecker and the different betting sites to find a few punts that might be of interest.

Of course, if you don’t think Duncan Laurence is the winner tonight, his short odds mean there are more generous prices to be found for the other contenders – 8.5 for Australia (Unibet), 11.0 for Switzerland (Sportingbet), and so on. Those odds for Luca already make an each-way bet an interesting proposition, but if you think he’s going to do well but doesn’t have a real chance of winning, you might want to back him in the “Top 4” market instead (e.g. 2.1 at Sportingbet).

Alternatively, if you don’t like the unpredictability of the juries but you think you’ve got a handle on what televoters like, you could back Australia to win the televote (4.4 at Betfair), regardless of whether the juries go for “Zero Gravity” or not. That seems a plausible outcome given the running order and the chance that there’ll be a discrepancy between the public vote and the “expert” vote tonight.

At the other end of the scoreboard, you’ll struggle to get odds much longer than evens for Germany to finish in last place – 2.5 at Unibet is about as good as it gets. The other main candidates are seen as being San Marino (7.0 at Coral) and the UK (7.0 at Paddy Power), though the likes of Israel (15.0 at Sportingbet), Slovenia (21.0 at Sportingbet) and Belarus (34.0 at Unibet) have their appeal too. But you’ll feel a bit daft if it ends up being S!sters after all. You could, of course, just bet against the German girls in a head-to-head – for example, 1.62 (Skybet) says the UK will finish higher than Germany, while 3.0 (Bet365) is available if you think Germany will actually win that particular fight.

A screamingly obvious top five finish? (photo: eurovision.tv)

The position markets are generally interesting: Early-season favourite Russia has drifted all the way to 40+ in the winner market but, with friendly votes on his side, could still be worth a sniff in the “Top 5” market (2.0 at Unibet, so you’d double your money). Indeed, even if you buy into the narrative that it’s a Netherlands/Switzerland/Australia/Sweden carve-up for the top spots, someone else has to round off the top five. Azerbaijan at 2.28 and Italy at 2.74 are seen as next in line according to Betfair, but there’s good money to be made if you think you’ve spotted this year’s Michael Schulte equivalent among the supposed also-rans.

Similarly, the “Top 10” market allows for a bit of a punt. If the top few songs suck up a lot of the votes (think 2015, or even 2017 to an extent), that can open the door to a top ten finish without needing too many points. A strong jury vote could get Malta there despite them opening the show (3.75 on Unibet), while a strong televote from Spain in the pimp slot could do the same (4.33 on Bet365). Or you could go for longer odds – like Estonia, which might come across as a blessed slice of normality among all the craziness tonight. You can currently get 14.0 (Betfair) for Victor Crone to sneak into the top ten.

Group bets are a good option for betting on a relative outcome without having to decide where you think the country in question will land on the scoreboard. For example, even at short odds of 1.57 (Paddy Power), Sweden looks like value in the “Top Nordic” market – as even a hefty televote score for Iceland or Norway should be insufficient to outweigh the expected jury love for John Lundvik. The “Top Balkan” market (which includes Greece) is a more interesting proposition: Katerine Duska has the shortest odds there, but Nevena from Serbia could be similarly jury-friendly, plus she has a peach of a draw and some friendly televotes in the bag already – making odds of 6.0 (Bet365) for Serbia to top that category seem tempting.

“Top Big Five” is also interesting in light of the Bilal hype that has spread through the press centre during rehearsal week and the corresponding despair over the Italian styling choices. This is where laying on Betfair can come in handy: If, for example, you’re sceptical about Mahmood’s chances but you’re not sure whether France or Spain will be the main beneficiary, you can simply lay Italy (currently 1.76) and you’ll win your money as long as Italy isn’t the top scorer among the five automatic qualifiers, regardless of who else is.

Comment dire “hype” en français?

And the available bets just keep on getting more niche. For example, Bet365 have numerous markets dedicated to the number of 12-point awards the juries will read out tonight. They’ll give you odds of 1.83 if you think Australia will score douze more than 3.5 times (i.e. 4 times or more), which feels like a good deal unless you buy into that Netherlands whitewash. Meanwhile, you can bet on the UK and Ireland televote 12s at Paddy Power – there’s odds of 7.0 to be had if you think the Brits will fall for Kate Miller-Heidke’s depression on stilts act, which seems quite plausible in the absence of the usual UK televote sponges like Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Ireland.

As always, our recommended guide to understanding the odds talked about above is the one by our much-missed friend and colleague Daniel at sofabet.com – we’ll be raising a glass to him tonight, and we hope you do too.

All odds correct at time of writing (1pm-ish on ESC day). They can and will change during the day, and indeed during the show itself, so keep your eyes peeled – and happy betting!

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