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escgo! prediction 2016: Semi-final 1

by | May 10, 2016 | 2016 ESC General, Uncategorized

escgo! prediction 2016: Semi-final 1

by | May 10, 2016 | 2016 ESC General, Uncategorized

Tonight sees the first semi-final of the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest, and it’s time for the escgo! team to predict which ten of the 18 candidates they think will progress to Saturday’s grand final.

You can see the choices of Martin, Felix and Shi in the table below – followed by a brief explanation of their choices!

Country Martin Felix Shi TEAM
1. Finland  0 %
2. Greece  0 %
3. Moldova  0 %
4. Hungary  Q  Q  66.6 %
5. Croatia  Q  Q  66.6 %
6. The Netherlands  Q  Q  Q  100 %
7. Armenia  Q  Q  Q  100 %
8. San Marino  0 %
9. Russia  Q  Q  Q  100 %
10. Czech Republic  Q  Q  Q  100 %
11. Cyprus  Q  Q  66.6 %
12. Austria  Q  Q  66.6 %
13. Estonia  0 %
14. Azerbaijan  Q  Q  66.6 %
15. Montenegro  0 %
16. Iceland  Q  Q  Q  100 %
17. Bosnia and Herzegovina  Q  Q  66.6 %
18. Malta  Q  Q  Q  100 %

 

MartinF:

I’m prepared to describe five of my qualifiers as “certain”. Armenia and Russia go without saying, Malta has a great draw and some friendly votes on its side, Iceland was potentially at risk of failure but has been rehearsing really well, and the Netherlands are occupying a niche of their own.

Of the rest, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this is the year – after two near misses – where Azerbaijan finally fails to make it through, with average televoting support being killed by jury hate for Samra’s vocals.

Like the Dutch, the entry from Cyprus also occupies a niche (Montenegro is knocking on the door, but they forgot to bring a melody); I’ve never been convinced by Minus One as performers, but they should have enough to qualify. I’ll still take Croatia despite the fashion disaster (though I’m not convinced), while the Czech Republic will eat up all the pretty-girl votes, leaving Austria on the outside.

And in the battle of the perma-qualifiers who are risking it this year, I actually don’t think Greece will be too far away from qualifying, but Bosnia & Herzegovina will steal their space in the final.

One life is all we get to live | © eurovision.tv / Andres Putting

One life is all we get to live | © eurovision.tv / Andres Putting

FelixK:

Safe qualifiers for me are the Netherlands, Armenia and Russia. Armenia must look stunning on TV, so we heard, it’s perfectly presented and has a chance of winning the semi-final. The Netherlands are the only song clearly in a major key in this semi-final, got a good performance and a nice song that will have its exclusive audience, three facts that should make it qualify with ease. And Russia is being Russia.

I was a little insecure about Bosnia, but looking at their position in the running order and their qualification record, in combination with being a country with friends, it’s quite clear to me that they will qualify. Azerbaijan – undeservedly – will qualify, because it’s a better song than their borderline qualifiers, and I just think there must be some major injustice happening in every Eurovision semi-final, so it’s Azerbaijan.

I’m a little bit scared for Austria, I have it high on my wish list to qualify, but I’m warned out of experience. Same goes for the Czech Republic, for other reasons, but considering it’s the only female ballad next to Croatia (which is not very sure either), and the far better presented one, it should make it.

You're Delicious, So Capricious | © eurovision.tv / Andres Putting

You’re Delicious, So Capricious | © eurovision.tv / Andres Putting

Shi:

I had to make tough calls! I want to call Azerbaijan as a non-qualifier, but when I try to make the math in my head I can see them just scraping in with the combination of juries and televote, with the juries having a few other things to place at the bottom.

I’d love Croatia to make it, but they didn’t come up with the inspiring staging this needed. I know Bosnia & Herzegovina have a great draw, but it’s perhaps the least likable performance of the night. The Greeks are just too amateur to be able to convincingly sell a song that is not good enough.

Hungary has been on the bubble all season long, but I think the song is good, as is his voice, and I decided not to underestimate the combination of that with a guy who is very nice to look at.

Estonia also have a strong song and an even better male vocal, but I can see the package as it is now just not appealing enough to voters.

I always had Czech Republic as a safe qualifier – even before rehearsals – and I am sticking to it, and as for the rest, it divides between the obvious (Russia and Armenia) and good songs that also represent good diversity of audiences.

 

Will we be right or completely wrong? There’s only a few hours left until we find out – so whatever you’re doing and whomever you’re watching the show with, have a great time tonight!

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