Tonight is the first semi-final of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest in Vienna, so it’s time for our editors to make their predictions for which ten countries will make it through to the grand final!

We’ll start with the predictions themselves, in running order:

Martin: Moldova, Sweden, Croatia, Greece, Portugal, Finland, Israel, Lithuania, Poland, Serbia.

Felix: Moldova, Sweden, Greece, Portugal, Finland, Montenegro, Israel, Lithuania, San Marino, Serbia.

As you can see, Martin and Felix agree on eight of the ten qualifiers. In terms of the ones that are currently seen as borderliners by the bookmakers, Portugal have such a good qualifying record recently that it’s hard to bet against them even with a song that, on the surface, seems to go against all the “rules” of Eurovision. And both of them are quite sure that Lithuania will make it, partly – admittedly – because they both see something in Lion Ceccah’s entry to love. But if they can love it, why can’t lots of other people?

Where they differ: Martin thinks the non-song from Poland will make it (and comfortably so), not least with strong jury support for Alicja’s vocal prowess, whereas Felix expects the actual song from San Marino to make a bigger impact – after all, people might still be talking about Boy George and all that glitter while Alicja performs.

Meanwhile, they each have a second ex-Yugoslav entry in their ten predictions alongside Serbia, but it’s a different one. Montenegro were a comfortable qualifier according to the bookmakers until the rehearsals began, since when they have slipped back. Felix still sees them as a qualifier, however – whereas Martin has opted for Croatia, though admittedly with not a large degree of confidence. But if Tautumeitas can finish second in a semi-final, the admittedly weaker entry from Lelek should (with a bit of local support in this semi) be able to reach the dizzy heights of tenth place.

That’s what we think – what about you?

Wherever you’re watching the show tonight, and whatever your level of engagement with the contest at this hectic time in its history, we hope you have a wonderful evening. And don’t forget you can join our #esc chat and talk to other Eurovision fans before, during and after the show!