Happy Eurovision Day! Tonight it’s time for the grand final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 held in Vienna. Which can only mean one thing…

It’s time for our team’s prediction!

The format is simple: Each of the escgo! team members (Martin, Felix and Shi) has 100 points to distribute across the entries depending on how likely they consider them to be tonight’s winner. Below the table you’ll find a detailed discussion of their reasons for the points they’ve given!

And here’s what they think:

	Martin	Felix	Shi	TEAM POINTS	VICTORY CHANCE in %
Denmark
Germany
Israel	25	19		44	14.67%
Belgium
Albania
Greece		7	20	27	9%
Ukraine
Australia	25	15	30	70	23.33%
Serbia
Malta		9		9	3%
Czechia
Bulgaria	15			15	5%
Croatia
United Kingdom		5		5	1.67%
France	10	5	15	30	10%
Moldova
Finland	25	21	30	76	25.33%
Poland		1		1	0.33%
Lithuania
Sweden
Cyprus
Italy		3		3	1%
Norway
Romania		15	5	20	6.67%
Austria

So what do we expect? Here’s how the team explains their choices:

Martin:
I was originally going to go straight down the line by quarters. A quarter of my points for Finland, because sometimes the season-long betting and fan narrative is enough to win over the juries and ordinary punters too, and we all shrug our shoulders and say “see, it was obvious all along”. A quarter for Australia, because they’re often a jury favourite and this time they might have produced something that can hit triple digits in the televote. A quarter for Israel, because they will get triple digits in the televote (and then some), and if the jury vote is really split, that might be enough to give the EBU the headache it so richly deserves. And finally, a quarter for France, because juries have recently proven to be inexplicably fond of operatic vocals, even when attached to total non-songs like this year’s French entry.

But then I thought: What impressed me the most in the semi-finals? Bulgaria, by far. And I can see a situation where a friendly televote and the younger demographic of the juries this year combine to produce the most unlikely of winners. So why not go out on a limb and redistribute some of my French points to them instead? As they say where I come from, shy bairns get nowt!

Felix:
Rooting for one’s personal favourites in Eurovision is one thing, more or less fun depending on the results. But predicting what the TV viewers and judges MIGHT go for, and that’s what we’re doing here, is a whole lot more exhausting, because it’s not easy to not be influenced by what everybody else predicts in public or in private.

Another problem with this year’s prediction is that most of the talked-about favourites seem to be able to succeed with just one half of the power, the juries OR the televoters, or with just one part of the Eurovision territory. But one country has to win, right? This year seems to be so open that things can happen that nobody ever talked about, like Romania winning, with its excellent composition, striking performance and optimal draw. Or Malta with its VERY memorable title lyrics and quite unrivalled romanticism. In the end, it could also be Israel in first place. But there are also songs that I don’t see as hot as favourites as others anticipate. For example: Australia might not be that strong in the public vote, also due to the early performance. But if I’m asked to really predict a winner, which is the case here, I’ll go by the assumption that the jury and the televoters combined will pick the most likely compromise winner and give the trophy to: Finland after all, with its live played violin, catchy chorus and iconic final pose.

Shi:
Much like Felix, I agree that most favorites this year are more likely to succeed in one set of votes more than the other, and therefore I think it will indeed come down to a compromise winner that will do well enough in both. On who that might be, I actually disagree with Felix. I think that Australia is not only likely to win the jury, she comes across like such a superstar that I won’t be surprised if she gets a pretty big televote as well. Finland comes close with an iconic performance, although I do wonder if it will do a little less well in televote than expected. Israel actually has a great song but the televote shenanigans and jury shenanigans will cancel each other out, so it won’t win but will end up somewhere in the top 10, where it should be anyway. Greece could do it if it can get a big televote, Romania also has an outside chance to do really well with both votes, and France will live and die on what the jury does with it.

And that, dear readers, concludes our pre-contest blogging here on escgo! Remember you can join us in our legendary #esc chat tonight if you want to chat along with likeminded fans during the show – and however you choose to enjoy it, we hope you have a wonderful evening. May the best song win!